Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Atromitos.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 38% Atromitos — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atromitos at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. PapadopoulosG
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 16F. BrorssonD
- 6K. ChrisopoulosD
- 27G. KotsirasM
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 10Eder GonzálezM
- 28Alex MéndezM
- 7J. BartoloF
- 9F. MachedaF
- 11K. KetuF
- 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
- 14J. ChiccoM
- 20N. KaltsasF
- 51Giannis KriarasG
- 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 44A. PapakanellosM
- 80B. PérezM
- 17A. TereziouF
- 1L. ChoutesiotisG
- 12M. MountesD
- 4D. StavrópoulosD
- 32H. MagnússonD
- 21J. UronenD
- 5T. TsingarasM
- 14Dani GarcíaM
- 8S. MoutoussamyM
- 10S. PnevmonidisF
- 9J. PereaF
- 7S. ZuberF
- 88S. DiengG
- 33Konstantinos BatosM
- 20S. AbartzidisM
- 6T. KaramanisD
- 30A. KotsisM
- 24G. MitoglouD
- 97K. OforiM
- 16G. PapadopoulosD
- 44D. TsakmakisD
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to OFI19 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
Atromitos
Super League 1
- L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
What these results say
- Asteras Tripolis did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos
- 2 May 2026Asteras Tripolis 4–2 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 26 April 2026Atromitos 2–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 21 February 2026Asteras Tripolis 1–2 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 30 November 2025Atromitos 0–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 19 July 2025Atromitos 0–0 Asteras TripolisFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Atromitos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atromitos at 38% and given a win for Asteras Tripolis 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kalvin Ketu 4' for Asteras Tripolis, Julián Bartolo 22' for Asteras Tripolis, Dani García 23' for Atromitos. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.51.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.