AEK Athens FC
vs
OFI
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: AEK Athens FC 2–0 OFI
The model makes it 62% AEK Athens FC, 23% draw, 15% OFI — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 2.59, OFI 0.74.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AEK Athens FC vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 62% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs OFI
AEK Athens FC
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
- W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
OFI
- D2-2Asteras Tripolis20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
- W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
- W2-0Volos NFC23 August 2026
What these results say
- AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- OFI scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 11 |
| 4 | OFI | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs OFI
- 12 August 2026AEK Athens FC 2–2 OFISuper Cup
- 14 January 2026AEK Athens FC 0–1 OFICup
- 21 December 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 OFISuper League 1
- 3 December 2025AEK Athens FC 2–0 OFICup
- 9 November 2025OFI 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 8 December 2024OFI 1–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and OFI
AEK Athens FC
- B. Varga4 goals
- L. Jović4 goals
- Zini2 goals
OFI
- K. Kodro2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 7.08 against 6.55 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.59 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.74 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 1.21 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.81 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.74 for OFI. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.48 for OFI.