Aston Villa
vs
Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Aston Villa 2–1 Fenerbahçe
The model makes it 44% Aston Villa, 25% draw, 31% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.37, Fenerbahçe 1.78.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aston Villa are 9th on 3 points from 1 game; Fenerbahçe are 20th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Tottenham.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AS Roma.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
Fenerbahçe
- D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
- 22 January 2026Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aston Villa carry a model rating of 6.98 against 7.02 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for Aston Villa and 1.78 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aston Villa rate 1.23 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.36 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Aston Villa against 1.78 for Fenerbahçe. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/1 for Fenerbahçe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aston Villa at home · Fenerbahçe away
League matches only, this season — Aston Villa in the Premier League, Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Aston Villa 5 in the Premier League, Fenerbahçe 6 in the Süper Lig.
Aston Villa score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Aston Villa have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aston Villa
- at Newcastle17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Viking21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
- vs Manchester City24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
Fenerbahçe
- vs Alanyaspor17 Oct · Süper Ligwin 55%
- vs Slavia Praha20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- at Galatasaray26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Göztepe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.