Bodo/Glimt
vs
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Bodo/Glimt 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 32% Bodo/Glimt, 28% draw, 40% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 1.31, Borussia Dortmund 1.64.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bodo/Glimt are bottom on 0 points from 1 game; Borussia Dortmund are 12th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Bayern München.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 4 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to VfB Stuttgart.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
Bodo/Glimt
- L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen25 August 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen19 August 2026
- D3-3away to Union St. Gilloise4 August 2026
Borussia Dortmund
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bodo/Glimt had three goals or more.
- Bodo/Glimt scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
- 10 December 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
The two sides
Bodo/Glimt carry a model rating of 6.97 against 7.26 for Borussia Dortmund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.64 for Borussia Dortmund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodo/Glimt rate 1.15 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Dortmund rate 1.32 and 0.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 1.64 for Borussia Dortmund. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.59 for Borussia Dortmund.
Season stats
Bodo/Glimt at home · Borussia Dortmund away
League matches only, this season — Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien, Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bodo/Glimt 21 in the Eliteserien, Borussia Dortmund 4 in the Bundesliga.
Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 0 there.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Bodo/Glimt have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bodo/Glimt
- at Ham-Kam17 Oct · Eliteserienwin 56%
- at Napoli20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Valerenga24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 67%
- vs Viking30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 43%
Borussia Dortmund
- at Union Berlin17 Oct · Bundesligawin 60%
- at Sabah FA20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · Bundesligawin 58%
- at Bayern München31 Oct · Bundesligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.