Arsenal vs Coventry Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Coventry.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Arsenal, 22% draw, 16% Coventry — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Coventry
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 3C. MosqueraD
- 6GabrielD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 41D. RiceM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. OdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 13K. ArrizabalagaG
- 5P. HincapieD
- 36M. ZubimendiM
- 22E. NwaneriM
- 56M. DowmanM
- 23M. MerinoM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 19C. RushworthG
- 27M. van EwijkD
- 4B. ThomasD
- 24A. AmendaD
- 3J. DasilvaD
- 6M. GrimesM
- 18L. TchaounaM
- 8C. YirenkyiM
- 16F. OnyekaM
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
- 9E. SimmsF
- 13B. WilsonG
- 15L. KitchingD
- 29V. TorpM
- 22J. LatibeaudiereD
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 38G. HamerM
- 28J. EcclesM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 14T. AwoniyiF
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Coventry
- 24 January 2014Arsenal 4–0 CoventryFA Cup
- 26 September 2012Arsenal 6–1 CoventryLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Coventry
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Coventry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal beat Coventry 3–0. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: K. Havertz 15' for Arsenal, B. Saka 23' for Arsenal, M. Odegaard 49' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.28.