Cracovia Krakow
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 63% Cracovia Krakow, 22% draw, 15% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.91, Wieczysta Kraków 0.81.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cracovia Krakow
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.43 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cracovia Krakow D-L-D; Wieczysta Kraków L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.81 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.65 and 1.51.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 0.81 for Wieczysta Kraków. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.67/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.51 for Wieczysta Kraków.