SJK
vs
Lahti
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 33% SJK, 39% draw, 28% Lahti — fair odds of 3.03, 2.56 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (25%).
Expected goals: SJK 0.75, Lahti 0.66.
Both teams to score: 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 17%, under 2.5: 83%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SJK
- D2-2Gnistan7 August 2026
- W3-0HJK Helsinki3 August 2026
- L1-2away to FF Jaro24 July 2026
- L0-2KuPS18 July 2026
- L0-1away to VPS10 July 2026
Lahti
- D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ilves26 July 2026
- W2-0away to Mariehamn20 July 2026
- W2-0HJK Helsinki11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | Lahti | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
SJK carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.33 for Lahti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SJK L-L-L-W-D; Lahti W-W-L-W-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for SJK and 0.66 for Lahti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SJK rate 0.36 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lahti rate 0.28 and 1.10.
That points to 17% for over two and a half goals and 26% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (25%), 1-0 (18%), 0-1 (16%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for SJK against 0.66 for Lahti. SJK's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.28/1.1 for Lahti.