Olimpija Ljubljana
vs
Mura
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 Mura
The model makes it 54% Olimpija Ljubljana, 27% draw, 19% Mura — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.93, Mura 0.69.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th on 14 points from 10 games; Mura are 9th on 9 points from 10 games — 1. SNL.
- Olimpija Ljubljana have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bravo.
- Mura have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Celje.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Mura 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana.
All Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpija Ljubljana at 54% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
Olimpija Ljubljana
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radomlje29 August 2026
- W1-0Nafta21 August 2026
Mura
- D0-0Celje20 September 2026
- L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bravo29 August 2026
- L0-1Koper22 August 2026
What these results say
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mura conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mura had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Mura | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
- 25 July 2026Mura 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 4 April 2026Mura 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 31 January 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
- 28 September 2025Mura 0–2 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 19 July 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
- 10 May 2025Mura 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
The two sides
Olimpija Ljubljana carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.14 for Mura. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.69 for Mura. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olimpija Ljubljana rate 0.60 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mura rate 0.48 and 1.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 6.5% chance of the title and Mura 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana against 0.69 for Mura. Olimpija Ljubljana's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.98 for Mura.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olimpija Ljubljana at home · Mura away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Olimpija Ljubljana 10, Mura 10.
Olimpija Ljubljana score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Mura have let in 7 there.
Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Olimpija Ljubljana have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olimpija Ljubljana
- at Aluminij16 Oct · 1. SNLwin 35%
- vs Celje28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 37%
- at Maribor31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 27%
- at Nafta7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 35%
- vs Radomlje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 54%
Mura
- vs Nafta17 Oct · 1. SNLwin 32%
- at Radomlje28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 28%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 37%
- at Koper7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 17%
- vs Bravo21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.