Bursaspor
vs
Mardin 1969
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bursaspor 1–0 Mardin 1969
The model makes it 46% Bursaspor, 30% draw, 24% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Bursaspor 1.47, Mardin 1969 0.77.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bursaspor are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Mardin 1969 are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Bursaspor are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Batman Petrolspor.
- Mardin 1969 have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kayserispor.
- Last 2 meetings: Bursaspor 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Bursaspor 2–0 Mardin 1969.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bursaspor at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
Bursaspor
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Manisa F.K.7 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Kayserispor29 August 2026
Mardin 1969
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sivasspor2 September 2026
- D1-1Vanspor FK29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bursaspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bursaspor had three goals or more.
- Mardin 1969 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bursaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
- 4 April 2026Bursaspor 2–0 Mardin 19692. Lig
- 6 December 2025Mardin 1969 1–2 Bursaspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Mardin 1969
Bursaspor
- K. Ịheanachọ11 goals2 assists
Mardin 1969
- O. Kayode3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bursaspor carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.48 for Mardin 1969. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Bursaspor and 0.77 for Mardin 1969. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bursaspor rate 0.78 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mardin 1969 rate 0.52 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bursaspor a 55.6% chance of the title and Mardin 1969 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bursaspor against 0.77 for Mardin 1969. Bursaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.16 for Mardin 1969.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bursaspor at home · Mardin 1969 away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bursaspor 8, Mardin 1969 8.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Bursaspor have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bursaspor
- at Muğlaspor15 Oct · 1. Ligwin 39%
- vs Pendikspor19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 52%
- at Keçiörengücü25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Bandırmaspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Antalyaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
Mardin 1969
- vs Fatih Karagümrük15 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Esenler Erokspor19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Manisa F.K.26 Oct · 1. Ligwin 45%
- at İstanbulspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
- vs Batman Petrolspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.