Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Muğlaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Muğlaspor
The model makes it 46% Fatih Karagümrük, 30% draw, 24% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.51, Muğlaspor 0.80.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fatih Karagümrük are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Muğlaspor are 10th on 11 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Esenler Erokspor.
- Muğlaspor are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Iğdır FK.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Kayserispor2 September 2026
- D1-1away to İstanbulspor29 August 2026
Muğlaspor
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
- D2-2Vanspor FK6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Ümraniyespor1 September 2026
- W2-0Boluspor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Muğlaspor | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
- A. Pešić5 goals2 assists
Muğlaspor
- Y. Uzunoglu4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fatih Karagümrük carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.35 for Muğlaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.80 for Muğlaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.66 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Muğlaspor rate 0.50 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fatih Karagümrük a 5.8% chance of the title and Muğlaspor 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.80 for Muğlaspor. Fatih Karagümrük's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.41 for Muğlaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fatih Karagümrük at home · Muğlaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Fatih Karagümrük 8, Muğlaspor 8.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Muğlaspor have let in 2 there.
Muğlaspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fatih Karagümrük
- at Mardin 196915 Oct · 1. Ligwin 31%
- vs Keçiörengücü19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Sarıyer24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Pendikspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 47%
- at Bandırmaspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 29%
Muğlaspor
- vs Bursaspor15 Oct · 1. Ligwin 30%
- at Manisa F.K.19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 31%
- vs İstanbulspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 45%
- at Kayserispor2 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Esenler Erokspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.