Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kocaelispor 2-0 Gaziantep FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kocaelispor, 31% draw, 29% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kocaelispor at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
- 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 21Massadio HaïdaraD
- 14ShowM
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 11Gonçalo SousaF
- 97Florian AyéF
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 32Makana BakuM
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 27Ege BilimM
- 75Tayfur BingölD
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 16Deniz CeylanD
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 17Arda OzyarF
- 25Kacper TobiaszG
- 2Luis PérezD
- 4Arda KızıldağD
- 14Myenty AbenaD
- 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
- 6Ulrich MelekeM
- 18Deian SorescuM
- 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
- 44Alexandru MaximM
- 10Kacper KozłowskiM
- 28Halil DervişoğluF
- 3Drissa CamaraM
- 22Sontje HansenF
- 7Juninho BacunaM
- 19Serdar DursunF
- 9Trivante StewartF
- 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
- 5Efe SarıkayaD
- 21Abakar SyllaD
- 61Ogün ÖzçiçekM
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
- 15 February 2026Kocaelispor 3–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 13 January 2026Gaziantep FK 1–0 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
- 14 September 2025Gaziantep FK 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 16 December 2020Gaziantep FK 3–2 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Gaziantep FK
Kocaelispor
GoalsAssists
- B. Kutlu41
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kocaelispor beat Gaziantep FK 2–0. The model had made a win for Kocaelispor its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: B. Kutlu 56' for Kocaelispor, D. Agyei 76' for Kocaelispor. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.88.
How the call on Kocaelispor v Gaziantep FK has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 31% / 29%: the biggest move is Kocaelispor's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Kocaelispor win40%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Gaziantep FK win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.