Marumo Gallants
vs
Orlando Pirates
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Marumo Gallants 1–2 Orlando Pirates
The model makes it 30% Marumo Gallants, 28% draw, 42% Orlando Pirates — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Marumo Gallants 1.25, Orlando Pirates 1.74.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Marumo Gallants wins, grey are draws, red are Orlando Pirates wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
Marumo Gallants
- L0-1away to Amazulu12 September 2026
- D2-2Polokwane City4 September 2026
- L2-3TS Galaxy25 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mamelodi Sundowns19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Stellenbosch14 August 2026
Orlando Pirates
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
- W3-0away to Chippa United16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Amazulu12 August 2026
- W2-0Milford FC1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Marumo Gallants and Orlando Pirates
Marumo Gallants
- M. Ndlovu2 goals
Orlando Pirates
- O. Appollis2 goals2 assists
- B. Radiopane2 goals1 assists
- Y. Mbuthuma2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Marumo Gallants carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.53 for Orlando Pirates. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Marumo Gallants and 1.74 for Orlando Pirates. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Marumo Gallants rate 0.50 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando Pirates rate 0.81 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Marumo Gallants a 0% chance of the title and Orlando Pirates 57.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Marumo Gallants against 1.74 for Orlando Pirates. Marumo Gallants's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.54 for Orlando Pirates.