Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Marumo Gallants 0-2 Orlando Pirates.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Marumo Gallants, 27% draw, 45% Orlando Pirates — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30E. LakoG
- 13K. NcubeD
- 22M. RikhotsoD
- 44M. SikakaneD
- 3S. Ntiya-NtiyaD
- 15N. NdlondloM
- 8S. MbheleM
- 12K. OtladisaM
- 27M. Seketso
- 18M. NdlovuM
- 31E. injili
- 16K. MlamboG
- 24Y. MadibaM
- 43T. MohlammeM
- 19T. PheehaM
- 93T. KutumelaF
- 9O. MoletsheM
- 11T. DhludhluF
- 37N. RalenkoaneD
- 20P. MankuM
- 24S. ChaineG
- 36K. SebelebeleD
- 6L. SeemaD
- 5N. SibisiD
- 3N. NdabaD
- 20S. SelepeM
- 33T. MokobodiM
- 49K. Kgosietsile
- 48S. MasilelaM
- 11T. MoremiM
- 9Y. MbuthumaF
- 32S. DladlaG
- 19N. RapooD
- 37S. ZuluD
- 15M. NemtajelaM
- 29M. MthiyaneM
- 31S. PedersenF
- 23G. LunguF
- 12O. AppollisF
- 38M. PadimeF
Form going into Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
Marumo Gallants
Premier Soccer League
- L0-1away to Amazulu12 September 2026
- D2-2Polokwane City4 September 2026
- L2-3TS Galaxy25 August 2026
Orlando Pirates
Premier Soccer League
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
- 14 February 2026Orlando Pirates 3–0 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
- 6 December 2025Orlando Pirates 1–0 Marumo GallantsLeague Cup
- 12 August 2025Marumo Gallants 2–1 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 13 April 2025Orlando Pirates 1–0 Marumo GallantsCup
- 1 March 2025Marumo Gallants 2–0 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Marumo Gallants and Orlando Pirates
Marumo Gallants
GoalsAssists
- M. Ndlovu20
Orlando Pirates
GoalsAssists
- T. Moremi40
- B. Radiopane31
- O. Appollis23
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando Pirates won 2–0 at Marumo Gallants. The model had made a win for Orlando Pirates its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: K. Kgosietsile 32' for Orlando Pirates, N. Sibisi 74' for Orlando Pirates. On expected goals it finished 0.27–1.31.
How the call on Marumo Gallants v Orlando Pirates has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is Orlando Pirates's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Marumo Gallants win28%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Orlando Pirates win45%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.