CSKA Sofia
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
The model makes it 34% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 38% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.19, Botev Vratsa 1.27.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Sofia carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.41 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA Sofia D-W-W; Botev Vratsa D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.27 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Sofia rate 0.41 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.64 and 1.54.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Vratsa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.27 for Botev Vratsa. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.54 for Botev Vratsa.