CA Bizertin
vs
ES Zarzis
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: CA Bizertin 2–1 ES Zarzis
The model makes it 43% CA Bizertin, 26% draw, 31% ES Zarzis — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CA Bizertin 1.67, ES Zarzis 1.35.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. CA Bizertin's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Zarzis's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- CA Bizertin are 7th on 11 points from 7 games; ES Zarzis are 13th on 6 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- CA Bizertin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Club Africain.
- ES Zarzis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to ES Metlaoui.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Zarzis 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended ES Zarzis 2–0 CA Bizertin.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CA Bizertin vs ES Zarzis
Has the model earned this number?
CA Bizertin at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CA Bizertin vs ES Zarzis
CA Bizertin
Ligue 1
- L2-3away to Club Africain29 October 2026
- W3-1ES Hammam-Sousse23 October 2026
- D0-0US Monastirienne10 October 2026
- L0-2away to CS Sfaxien20 September 2026
- D1-1Olympique Béja5 September 2026
ES Zarzis
Ligue 1
- L1-2away to ES Metlaoui8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Stade Tunisien29 October 2026
- W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
- L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026
What these results say
- CA Bizertin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CA Bizertin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Zarzis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Zarzis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CA Bizertin | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | ES Zarzis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CA Bizertin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
ES Zarzis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: CA Bizertin vs ES Zarzis
- 20 May 2026ES Zarzis 2–0 CA BizertinCup
- 13 May 2026CA Bizertin 0–2 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 22 November 2025ES Zarzis 3–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 26 February 2025CA Bizertin 4–1 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 3 November 2024ES Zarzis 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 20 January 2018CA Bizertin 1–2 ES ZarzisLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CA Bizertin a 0.2% chance of the title and ES Zarzis 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CA Bizertin the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for CA Bizertin against 1.35 for ES Zarzis. CA Bizertin's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.8 for ES Zarzis.
How the model reaches 43% for CA Bizertin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CA Bizertin to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, CA Bizertin's ratings take away 1 point and ES Zarzis's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- CA Bizertin's ratings44%−1
- ES Zarzis's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
CA Bizertin at home · ES Zarzis away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: CA Bizertin 7, ES Zarzis 7.
ES Zarzis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); CA Bizertin have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CA Bizertin
- at US Ben Guerdane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- at ES Metlaoui12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer19 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at ES Tunis26 Dec · Ligue 1win 16%
ES Zarzis
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
- at ES Tunis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs ES Sahel19 Dec · Ligue 1win 49%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane26 Dec · Ligue 1win 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.