Aldosivi
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Aldosivi 0–1 Belgrano Cordoba
The model makes it 25% Aldosivi, 32% draw, 43% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 4.00, 3.13 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.75, Belgrano Cordoba 1.18.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Belgrano Cordoba are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Aldosivi are 14th on 8 points from 12 games; Belgrano Cordoba are 2nd on 22 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Aldosivi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Sarmiento Junin.
- Belgrano Cordoba are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Racing Club.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Aldosivi.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belgrano Cordoba at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba
Aldosivi
- L1-3Sarmiento Junin9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Huracan4 October 2026
- W1-0Atletico Tucuman21 September 2026
- L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
Belgrano Cordoba
- W2-0away to Racing Club11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Talleres Cordoba4 October 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin13 September 2026
- D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
What these results say
- Aldosivi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belgrano Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Belgrano Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Belgrano Cordoba had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aldosivi | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 8 |
| 2 | Belgrano Cordoba | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aldosivi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 90% today
Belgrano Cordoba
Chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A · 26% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 11 April 2026Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 August 2025Aldosivi 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2025Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 September 2018Aldosivi 2–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 October 2016Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2015Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
The two sides
Aldosivi carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.81 for Belgrano Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Aldosivi and 1.18 for Belgrano Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aldosivi rate 0.68 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgrano Cordoba rate 0.82 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgrano Cordoba the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Aldosivi against 1.18 for Belgrano Cordoba. Aldosivi's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.9 for Belgrano Cordoba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aldosivi at home · Belgrano Cordoba away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Aldosivi 28, Belgrano Cordoba 31.
Belgrano Cordoba score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Aldosivi have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Aldosivi
- at Racing Club31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 22%
- vs River Plate8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
Belgrano Cordoba
- vs Barracas Central1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 45%
- at Gimnasia La Plata8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.