Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Instituto Cordoba
The model makes it 37% Defensa Y Justicia, 30% draw, 33% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.32, Instituto Cordoba 1.17.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Defensa Y Justicia are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games; Instituto Cordoba are top on 25 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Defensa Y Justicia are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to San Lorenzo.
- Instituto Cordoba are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 4-1 win away to Independiente.
- Last 6 meetings: Instituto Cordoba 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Defensa Y Justicia.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba
Defensa Y Justicia
- W3-0San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
Instituto Cordoba
- W4-1away to Independiente2 October 2026
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
What these results say
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba
- 7 April 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 August 2024Instituto Cordoba 4–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 April 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 June 2014Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional
- 8 December 2013Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Defensa Y JusticiaPrimera Nacional
- 14 April 2013Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaPrimera Nacional
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Defensa Y Justicia carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.74 for Instituto Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.17 for Instituto Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.94 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Instituto Cordoba rate 0.92 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Instituto Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Defensa Y Justicia a 6.4% chance of the title and Instituto Cordoba 53.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 1.17 for Instituto Cordoba. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.14 for Instituto Cordoba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Defensa Y Justicia at home · Instituto Cordoba away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Defensa Y Justicia 26, Instituto Cordoba 27.
Defensa Y Justicia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Instituto Cordoba have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Defensa Y Justicia
- at Talleres Cordoba25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 34%
- vs Independiente1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 42%
- at Boca Juniors8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 23%
Instituto Cordoba
- vs Deportivo Riestra25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 44%
- at Estudiantes La Plata1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 30%
- vs Newell's Old Boys8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.