Atletico Tucuman
vs
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Rosario Central
The model makes it 32% Atletico Tucuman, 33% draw, 35% Rosario Central — fair odds of 3.13, 3.03 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 0.89, Rosario Central 0.99.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atletico Tucuman and Rosario Central are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Tucuman are 10th on 13 points from 11 games; Rosario Central are 2nd on 18 points from 10 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Atletico Tucuman are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Barracas Central.
- Rosario Central are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Argentinos Juniors.
- Last 6 meetings: Rosario Central 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Rosario Central 2–1 Atletico Tucuman.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 35% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
Rosario Central
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Tucuman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- 5 April 2026Rosario Central 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2025Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2025Rosario Central 3–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 August 2024Rosario Central 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 January 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Rosario CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 August 2023Rosario Central 0–0 Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assist
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.75 for Rosario Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.99 for Rosario Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.69 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosario Central rate 0.85 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 0.99 for Rosario Central. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.05 for Rosario Central.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Tucuman at home · Rosario Central away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Atletico Tucuman 26, Rosario Central 29.
Atletico Tucuman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Rosario Central have let in 9 there.
Rosario Central score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Tucuman have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Tucuman
- at Tigre25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 26%
- vs Argentinos Juniors1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 31%
- at Banfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 30%
Rosario Central
- vs Huracan25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- at Sarmiento Junin1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
- vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.