Alaves
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Alaves 1–0 Malaga
The model makes it 55% Alaves, 27% draw, 18% Malaga — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Alaves 1.62, Malaga 0.70.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Alaves: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Alaves are 7th on 11 points from 8 games; Malaga are bottom on 4 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Alaves are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol.
- Last 6 meetings: Alaves 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 May 2023, ended Alaves 2–1 Malaga.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alaves vs Malaga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alaves at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alaves vs Malaga
Alaves
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
Malaga
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
What these results say
- Alaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Malaga had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Malaga
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 77% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Malaga
- 20 May 2023Alaves 2–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 18 December 2022Malaga 1–0 AlavesSegunda División
- 6 May 2018Malaga 0–3 AlavesLa Liga
- 21 December 2017Alaves 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 11 March 2017Malaga 1–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 16 October 2016Alaves 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Malaga
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz33
Malaga
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alaves carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.58 for Malaga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Alaves and 0.70 for Malaga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alaves rate 0.93 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malaga rate 0.59 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alaves the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Alaves against 0.70 for Malaga. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.07 for Malaga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alaves at home · Malaga away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AlavesMalaga
Alaves are 6th after 8 La Liga matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Malaga are 19th after 8 (between 16th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Alaves 8, Malaga 8.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Malaga have let in 4 there.
Malaga score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Alaves have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Alaves
- at Barcelona31 Oct · La Ligawin 10%
- at Sevilla6 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Real Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 13%
Malaga
- at Real Betis31 Oct · La Ligawin 11%
- vs Racing Santander7 Nov · La Ligawin 39%
- at Osasuna22 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Athletic Club29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.