Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Wakrah 3-2 Al-Gharafa.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Al Wakrah, 25% draw, 34% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Wakrah at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Line-ups
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 14A. ZakyM
- 6Omar Al OsadM
- 7A. AssalM
- 18Luis AlbertoM
- 75A. ZouhzouhM
- 93A. LaïdouniF
- 22Yousef Mohammed RamadanG
- 15Almahdi AliD
- 20Nasser Al YazidiM
- 28Yousef El KhatibD
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 10Gelson DalaF
- 89Abdulaziz Abdulwahab OthmanG
- 66Mohamed SimoD
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 4S. SanoD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 29F. DíazM
- 13F. SassiM
- 96A. OunasM
- 10I. BennacerM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 9F. MagriF
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 90A. HassanF
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 31A. KoneG
- 5Mostafa EssamD
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 24Hamad KahioutG
Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
Al-Gharafa
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Wakrah | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
- 5 May 2026Al Wakrah 0–0 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
- 8 April 2026Al Wakrah 3–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 13 December 2025Al Wakrah 2–3 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 21 November 2025Al-Gharafa 1–0 Al WakrahStars League
- 11 April 2025Al Wakrah 1–1 Al-GharafaStars League
- 22 November 2024Al-Gharafa 3–1 Al WakrahStars League
Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah40
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Wakrah beat Al-Gharafa 3–2. The model had made a win for Al Wakrah its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aissa Laïdouni 38' for Al Wakrah, Yacine Brahimi (penalty) 45+10' for Al-Gharafa, Ferjani Sassi 48' for Al-Gharafa, Gelson Dala 78' for Al Wakrah, Gelson Dala 90+3' for Al Wakrah.
How the call on Al Wakrah v Al-Gharafa has moved
First published on 24 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Al Wakrah's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Al Wakrah win41%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Al-Gharafa win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.