Al Wakrah
vs
Al-Gharafa
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Wakrah 2–1 Al-Gharafa
The model makes it 39% Al Wakrah, 27% draw, 34% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Wakrah 1.75, Al-Gharafa 1.53.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Wakrah at 39% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
- L1-2Al-Rayyan SC27 August 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC20 August 2026
Al-Gharafa
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
- L1-3Al Shamal27 August 2026
- W2-1Al Shahaniya21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Wakrah | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
- 5 May 2026Al Wakrah 0–0 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
- 8 April 2026Al Wakrah 3–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 13 December 2025Al Wakrah 2–3 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 21 November 2025Al-Gharafa 1–0 Al WakrahStars League
- 11 April 2025Al Wakrah 1–1 Al-GharafaStars League
- 22 November 2024Al-Gharafa 3–1 Al WakrahStars League
Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Al-Gharafa
- F. Magri2 goals
- F. Díaz1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Wakrah carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.26 for Al-Gharafa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Al Wakrah and 1.53 for Al-Gharafa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Wakrah rate 0.58 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Gharafa rate 0.52 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Gharafa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Wakrah the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Wakrah against 1.53 for Al-Gharafa. Al Wakrah's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.69 for Al-Gharafa.