Al Shamal
vs
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Shamal 1–2 Al-Duhail SC
The model makes it 35% Al Shamal, 28% draw, 37% Al-Duhail SC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al Shamal 1.44, Al-Duhail SC 1.55.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al Shamal and Al-Duhail SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Duhail SC at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC
Al Shamal
- D1-1Al Wakrah10 September 2026
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Gharafa27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Arabi SC21 August 2026
Al-Duhail SC
- D1-1Al Shahaniya12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Rayyan SC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Arabi SC29 August 2026
- W2-0Al-Sailiya22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al Shamal | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 | Al-Duhail SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC
- 17 March 2026Al Shamal 1–3 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 25 October 2025Al-Duhail SC 2–0 Al ShamalStars League
- 5 April 2025Al-Duhail SC 0–4 Al ShamalStars League
- 1 November 2024Al Shamal 2–6 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 6 May 2024Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Al ShamalEmir Cup
- 15 March 2024Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Al ShamalStars League
Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al-Duhail SC
Al Shamal
- B. Bounedjah3 goals
- Moufak Awad2 goals
- M. Omar1 goals2 assists
Al-Duhail SC
- Tahsin Jamshid1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Shamal carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.5 for Al-Duhail SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Al Shamal and 1.55 for Al-Duhail SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shamal rate 0.66 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Duhail SC rate 0.59 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Shamal, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Duhail SC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Shamal against 1.55 for Al-Duhail SC. Al Shamal's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.22 for Al-Duhail SC.