Qatar SC
vs
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Qatar SC 1–2 Al-Rayyan SC
The model makes it 25% Qatar SC, 27% draw, 48% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Qatar SC 1.11, Al-Rayyan SC 1.99.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Qatar SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Rayyan SC at 48% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qatar SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Qatar SC
- D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahli Doha3 September 2026
- L2-6Al Sadd28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al Wakrah20 August 2026
Al-Rayyan SC
- W3-0Al Ahli Doha11 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Duhail SC5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al Wakrah27 August 2026
- W1-0Lusail City20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Qatar SC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qatar SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
- 20 September 2026Al-Rayyan SC 2–2 Qatar SCQSL Cup
- 6 February 2026Qatar SC 3–3 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 13 September 2025Al-Rayyan SC 1–1 Qatar SCStars League
- 3 September 2025Al-Rayyan SC 4–1 Qatar SCQSL Cup
- 18 April 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–0 Qatar SCStars League
- 7 December 2024Qatar SC 1–2 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
Leading scorers: Qatar SC and Al-Rayyan SC
Qatar SC
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Al-Rayyan SC
- Róger Guedes4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Qatar SC carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.6 for Al-Rayyan SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Qatar SC and 1.99 for Al-Rayyan SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qatar SC rate 0.53 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Rayyan SC rate 0.70 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Rayyan SC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Qatar SC against 1.99 for Al-Rayyan SC. Qatar SC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.17 for Al-Rayyan SC.