Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Sadd 2-3 Al-Arabi SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Al Sadd, 22% draw, 24% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Sadd at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Saad Al SheebG
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 5Tarek SalmanD
- 26A. RomagnoliD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 80A. SoriaM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 8GuilhermeM
- 77M. BrozovićM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 9Roberto FirminoF
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
- 23Hashim AliF
- 11GiovaniF
- 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
- 4M. CamaraM
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 32Karim Haider DibG
- 7Mohammed WaadM
- 31Jasem Al HailG
- 22K. BauobidaD
- 19Gueye LayeD
- 25A. PérezD
- 2Marwan HassanD
- 10RodriM
- 8Ahmed FathiM
- 17J. VeretoutM
- 80I. LihadjiM
- 7Pablo SarabiaF
- 6O. TannaneF
- 33Q. El HarounG
- 9Mohamed GoudaF
- 5SimoD
- 11Lotfi MadjerF
- 20A. MahajnaD
- 44Hassan MohamadM
- 98J. MonegalM
- 14M. OlungaF
- 30Salem Al HajriM
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
All competitions we cover
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
Al-Arabi SC
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al Sadd | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 18 | +16 | 18 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
- 17 March 2026Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al SaddStars League
- 19 January 2026Al-Arabi SC 5–0 Al SaddQSL Cup
- 25 October 2025Al Sadd 1–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 January 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–3 Al SaddStars League
- 22 August 2024Al Sadd 5–0 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 10 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al SaddStars League
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Akram Afif86
- Roberto Firmino84
- Giovani33
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia60
- O. Tannane33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Arabi SC won 3–2 at Al Sadd. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Sadd at 54% and given a win for Al-Arabi SC 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pablo Sarabia 4' for Al-Arabi SC, Roberto Firmino 12' for Al Sadd, Pablo Sarabia 13' for Al-Arabi SC, Agustin soria 42' for Al Sadd, Oussama Tannane 47' for Al-Arabi SC. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.83.
How the call on Al Sadd v Al-Arabi SC has moved
First published on 24 Sep at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 22% / 24%: the biggest move is Al Sadd's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al Sadd win54%▲ +4
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Al-Arabi SC win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.