Al Sadd
vs
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Arabi SC
The model makes it 50% Al Sadd, 24% draw, 26% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 2.60, Al-Arabi SC 1.56.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 50% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
- W6-2away to Qatar SC28 August 2026
- W3-1Al Ahli Doha22 August 2026
Al-Arabi SC
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC29 August 2026
- D2-2Al Shamal21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
- 17 March 2026Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al SaddStars League
- 19 January 2026Al-Arabi SC 5–0 Al SaddQSL Cup
- 25 October 2025Al Sadd 1–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 January 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–3 Al SaddStars League
- 22 August 2024Al Sadd 5–0 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 10 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al SaddStars League
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
- Roberto Firmino3 goals2 assists
- Akram Afif3 goals1 assists
- Y. Abdurisag1 goals2 assists
Al-Arabi SC
- O. Tannane1 goals1 assists
- M. Olunga1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.4 for Al-Arabi SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.60 goals for Al Sadd and 1.56 for Al-Arabi SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Sadd rate 1.06 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Arabi SC rate 0.55 and 1.37.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Sadd the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.6 expected goals for Al Sadd against 1.56 for Al-Arabi SC. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.37 for Al-Arabi SC.