Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shamal 1-1 Al Wakrah.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Shamal, 27% draw, 35% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shamal at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah
Line-ups
- 95B. SeckG
- 6Musab KhoderD
- 23Michel TermaniniD
- 4Pablo MaríD
- 2Moufak AwadD
- 28N. BenaïssaM
- 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
- 10Álex ColladoM
- 8Ali AsadM
- 47Fahad WaadM
- 22W. SaïdF
- 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
- 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
- 14Omar AliF
- 15Hussain BahzadD
- 16F. BaisD
- 11B. BounedjahF
- 1Ali MohammedG
- 70Tiago SilvaM
- 45Abdullah El RadyG
- 1Mohammed Al BakriG
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 6Omar Al OsadM
- 8Hamdi FathyM
- 7A. AssalM
- 93A. LaïdouniM
- 75A. ZouhzouhM
- 18Luis AlbertoF
- 28Yousef El KhatibD
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 20Nasser Al YazidiM
- 15Almahdi AliD
- 11R. BerkaneF
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 10Gelson DalaF
- 66Mohamed SimoD
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah
Al Shamal
Stars League
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
Al Wakrah
Stars League
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al Shamal | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Wakrah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al Wakrah
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah30
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh51
- Gelson Dala30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Shamal and Al Wakrah drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Shamal at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pablo Mari 26' for Al Shamal, Aissa Laïdouni 45' for Al Wakrah. Sent off: Baghdad Bounedjah (Al Shamal) 90+9'.
How the call on Al Shamal v Al Wakrah has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Al Shamal's chance of winning, down 18 points.
- Al Shamal win38%▼ −18
- Draw27%▲ +3
- Al Wakrah win35%▲ +15
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.