Al-Rayyan SC vs Al Ahli Doha Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Rayyan SC 3-0 Al Ahli Doha.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al-Rayyan SC, 29% draw, 27% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Rayyan SC at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Rayyan SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Line-ups
- 57Mahmud AbunadaG
- 8Jassem GaberD
- 13André AmaroD
- 5David GarcíaD
- 12Ahmed Al MinhaliD
- 31D. AmaroM
- 11Gabriel PereiraM
- 40GregoreM
- 25OtávioM
- 10Róger GuedesM
- 30Ahmed Alaa EldinF
- 22Ahmed Al GanehiF
- 23S. BeldiG
- 3Hazem ShehataD
- 35Sami MazenG
- 4J. De SartM
- 33D. DiakiteD
- 17Youssef AymanD
- 6Abdulaziz HatemM
- 19Ahmed Al RawiF
- 13Mohamed LinglizG
- 41Ahmed ReyedD
- 5W. Troost-EkongD
- 88A. AmraouiD
- 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
- 8Talal Al ShilaM
- 33D. FettouhiM
- 77Ismaeel MohammadM
- 27B. BourigeaudM
- 7J. DraxlerM
- 14M. VlapF
- 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
- 16R. TihiD
- 23N. SlitiF
- 49Z. SassiD
- 11Suhaib GannanF
- 6Luiz CearáM
- 15Mohammed Abdulla Al-IshaqM
- 20Hamad MansourM
- 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
Form going into Al-Rayyan SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League
- D1-1Al-Duhail SC5 September 2026
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- W1-0Qatar SC3 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 17 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Rayyan SC and Al Ahli Doha
Al-Rayyan SC
GoalsAssists
- Róger Guedes52
- Gabriel Pereira31
- Ahmed Alaa Eldin30
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- N. Sliti32
- J. Draxler31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Rayyan SC beat Al Ahli Doha 3–0. The model had made a win for Al-Rayyan SC its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ahmed Alaaeldin 25' for Al-Rayyan SC, Róger Guedes 36' for Al-Rayyan SC, Róger Guedes 73' for Al-Rayyan SC.
How the call on Al-Rayyan SC v Al Ahli Doha has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Al-Rayyan SC's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Al-Rayyan SC win44%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Al Ahli Doha win27%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.