Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Gharafa 0-0 Lusail City.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al-Gharafa, 29% draw, 36% Lusail City — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Qatar Stars League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusail City at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City
Line-ups
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 4S. SanoD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 29F. DíazM
- 13F. SassiM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 7F. ComanM
- 9F. MagriF
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 90A. HassanF
- 31A. KoneG
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 34M. GamalG
- 96A. OunasM
- 5Mostafa EssamD
- 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
- 1A. ShakouriG
- 2A. PilaliD
- 4F. RussoD
- 6O. EbrahimiD
- 27M. AiashD
- 66A. NematiD
- 7F. ZavoshiM
- 20Naif Al HadhramiM
- 8Khaled MohammedM
- 11H. FirouziM
- 19RodrigoF
- 14K. MansourM
- 5Abdullah Makki Al-KaratlyM
- 96Amir HassanG
- 3Ali MalolahD
- 70Mohamed KhaledF
- 22T. GeralnikM
- 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
- 68A. RashidF
- 10S. JjbrilM
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
Lusail City
Stars League
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Lusail City
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi30
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo40
- F. Zavoshi30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Gharafa and Lusail City drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusail City at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Al-Gharafa v Lusail City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Gharafa's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Al-Gharafa win35%▼ −5
- Draw29%=
- Lusail City win36%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.