Al-Sailiya
vs
Lusail City
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Sailiya 1–2 Lusail City
The model makes it 23% Al-Sailiya, 25% draw, 52% Lusail City — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Sailiya 1.14, Lusail City 1.96.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,652 settled matches.
Edge to Lusail City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 28 October 2026. Al-Sailiya's rating is built from 29 Qatar Stars League matches and Lusail City's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 307 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Sailiya are bottom on 1 point from 7 games; Lusail City are 9th on 6 points from 7 games — Stars League.
- Al-Sailiya have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat at home to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Lusail City are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Al-Duhail SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Sailiya 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2025, ended Lusail City 0–0 Al-Sailiya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusail City at 52% here. Across 5,037 settled matches (as of 28 October 2026), 1,253 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City
Al-Sailiya
Stars League
- L1-6Al-Rayyan SC23 October 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Al Ahli Doha10 October 2026
- L3-6Al Sadd10 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Arabi SC3 September 2026
Lusail City
Stars League
- L1-3away to Al-Duhail SC24 October 2026
- D0-0Al Shamal17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Sailiya did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al-Sailiya conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Sailiya had three goals or more.
- Lusail City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 1 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Sailiya
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 96% today
Lusail City
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 15% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City
- 20 February 2025Lusail City 0–0 Al-SailiyaSecond Division
- 24 October 2024Al-Sailiya 2–3 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 28 February 2024Al-Sailiya 1–1 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 31 October 2023Lusail City 0–1 Al-SailiyaSecond Division
- 16 September 2023Lusail City 2–3 Al-SailiyaQFA Cup
- 21 April 2021Lusail City 0–1 Al-SailiyaQFA Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Sailiya and Lusail City
Al-Sailiya
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo40
- F. Zavoshi30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Sailiya carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.37 for Lusail City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Al-Sailiya and 1.96 for Lusail City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Sailiya rate 0.49 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusail City rate 0.48 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,427 correct results out of 5,040 settled predictions (48%), with 504 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusail City the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Sailiya against 1.96 for Lusail City. Al-Sailiya's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.31 for Lusail City.
How the model reaches 52% for Lusail City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Lusail City to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Sailiya's ratings add 10 points and Lusail City's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage37%−1
- Both sides at this match's level36%−1
- Al-Sailiya's ratings46%+10
- Lusail City's ratings52%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Sailiya at home · Lusail City away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Sailiya 7, Lusail City 7.
Al-Sailiya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lusail City have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Sailiya
- at Al Shamal20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
- at Al Wakrah27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 19%
- vs Al-Gharafa3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 26%
Lusail City
- vs Qatar SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 40%
- at Al Sadd27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
- vs Al-Arabi SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.