League Phase - 2 · 12 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh

Our model says: Al-Nassr 3–0 Neftchi Fergana

The model makes it 76% Al-Nassr, 15% draw, 9% Neftchi Fergana — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Al-Nassr 3.87, Neftchi Fergana 0.68.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Al-Nassr are bottom on 0 points from 1 game; Neftchi Fergana are 6th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
  • Al-Nassr have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al Khaleej Saihat.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Al-Nassr76%1.32
Draw15%6.67
Neftchi Fergana9%11.11

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana

48%
Both teams to score
83%
Over 2.5 goals
17%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al-Nassr win Draw Neftchi Fergana win
  1. 3–010%
  2. 4–010%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 5–08%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 4–17%
  7. 2–15%

Scores read Al-Nassr first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 45%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Nassr at 76% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana

Al-Nassr

  • L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026

Neftchi Fergana

  • W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Al-Nassr100104-40
6Neftchi Fergana110010+13

Where the two sides stand. Full table

A clear gap in the ratings

Al-Nassr carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.24 for Neftchi Fergana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.87 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.68 for Neftchi Fergana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Al-Nassr rate 1.14 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neftchi Fergana rate 0.55 and 1.85.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Fergana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.87 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 0.68 for Neftchi Fergana. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.85 for Neftchi Fergana.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al-Nassr

Neftchi Fergana

  • vs Al-Ittihad26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
  • at Tractor Sazi2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 25%
  • vs Al-Hilal23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
  • at Esteghlal FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
  • vs Al-Ahli Jeddah9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.