Al-Gharafa
vs
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 1–0 Esteghlal FC
The model makes it 35% Al-Gharafa, 31% draw, 34% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.14, Esteghlal FC 1.09.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 12th on 0 points from 1 game; Esteghlal FC are 2nd on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Gharafa are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Lusail City.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Gharafa at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
Al-Gharafa
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
- 16 September 2024Esteghlal FC 3–0 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC
Al-Gharafa
- A. Hassan1 goal
Esteghlal FC
- J. Asani1 goal1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Gharafa carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.47 for Esteghlal FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.09 for Esteghlal FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Gharafa rate 0.52 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esteghlal FC rate 0.53 and 1.20.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Esteghlal FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Gharafa the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 1.09 for Esteghlal FC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.2 for Esteghlal FC.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- at Al-Rayyan SC16 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al Ahli Doha22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 36%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 10%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
Esteghlal FC
- at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
- vs Al Shamal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 43%
- at Al Ain23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
- vs Neftchi Fergana7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 50%
- at Pakhtakor8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.