2 de Mayo
vs
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: 2 de Mayo 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% 2 de Mayo, 27% draw, 23% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 1.68, Sportivo Ameliano 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 2 de Mayo at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. LerdaG
- 23A. EspínolaD
- 21P. SosaD
- 6C. RamírezD
- 19C. CastroD
- 16M. GómezM
- 27M. MoyaM
- 37L. DelgadilloM
- 30A. FariñaM
- 10A. GómezM
- 25A. CerveraF
- 7F. CáceresF
- 3A. VillalbaD
- 17P. DelvalleF
- 20E. DíazM
- 22T. PortilloF
- 32Mario RamírezG
- 24Ó. RomeroM
- 5C. SaizD
- 4Tobías Sanabria PanottoM
- 35Á. SánchezG
- 13R. PeraltaD
- 26J. GonzálezD
- 22L. FalabellaD
- 19A. ParedesD
- 15W. RodríguezM
- 7F. VeraM
- 20V. LarraldeM
- 10R. CabralM
- 14E. ToralesM
- 9C. OcamposF
- 24L. BentosM
- 1J. BalbuenaG
- 5H. BenítezD
- 6J. BenítezM
- 32G. CamargoM
- 40A. ContreraM
- 21F. FrancoD
- 25L. BrunoF
- 8E. MoreiraM
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion18 September 2026
- L0-2Libertad Asuncion11 September 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
- W1-0Club Sp. San Lorenzo11 September 2026
What these results say
- 2 de Mayo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 2 de Mayo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 28 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 12 October 20262 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 April 20262 de Mayo 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 10 November 2025Sportivo Ameliano 2–3 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 23 August 20252 de Mayo 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
- C. Ocampos42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.68 goals for 2 de Mayo and 0.95 for Sportivo Ameliano; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Alan Gómez 56' (2 de Mayo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 2 de Mayo the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 0.95 for Sportivo Ameliano. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.59 for Sportivo Ameliano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.