Tractor Sazi
vs
Al Shamal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Tractor Sazi 1–0 Al Shamal
The model makes it 38% Tractor Sazi, 31% draw, 31% Al Shamal — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tractor Sazi 1.23, Al Shamal 1.03.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tractor Sazi are 14th on 0 points from 1 game; Al Shamal are 8th on 1 point from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Shamal are unbeaten in their last 4 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al Wakrah.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Tractor Sazi
- L0-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 September 2026
Al Shamal
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tractor Sazi carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.43 for Al Shamal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Tractor Sazi and 1.03 for Al Shamal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tractor Sazi rate 0.44 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shamal rate 0.66 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Shamal, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tractor Sazi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tractor Sazi against 1.03 for Al Shamal. Tractor Sazi's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.53 for Al Shamal.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tractor Sazi
- at Al Ain26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- vs Neftchi Fergana2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
- vs Al-Wasl FC23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- at Pakhtakor7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
- vs Al Sadd8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
Al Shamal
- at Lusail City16 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 33%
- vs Qatar SC22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 44%
- vs Al-Hilal27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- at Esteghlal FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.