Al Quwa Al Jawiya
vs
Al Ain
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–2 Al Ain
The model makes it 18% Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 25% draw, 57% Al Ain — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0.80, Al Ain 2.26.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 13th on 0 points from 1 game; Al Ain are top on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Ain are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Wasl FC.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ain at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- L0-1away to Neftchi Fergana14 September 2026
Al Ain
- W4-0Al-Nassr15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Al Ain
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
No league goals yet this season.
Al Ain
- H. Rahimi2 goals
- S. Rahimi1 goal1 assist
- G. Giakoumakis1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al Quwa Al Jawiya carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.76 for Al Ain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 2.26 for Al Ain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya rate 0.41 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Ain rate 0.89 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ain the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya against 2.26 for Al Ain. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.06 for Al Ain.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- vs Pakhtakor26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- at Al-Wasl FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Gharafa23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- at Al Sadd7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 10%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
Al Ain
- at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai17 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Tractor Sazi26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 59%
- vs Ajman29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 58%
- at Al-Ittihad2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 31%
- at Al Wahda FC8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.