Al-Wasl FC
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Wasl FC 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 34% Al-Wasl FC, 27% draw, 39% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Wasl FC 1.54, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Wasl FC are 11th on 0 points from 1 game; Al-Ahli Jeddah are 10th on 1 point from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Wasl FC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al Ain.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Al-Hazm.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Wasl FC
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC14 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 30 September 2024Al-Wasl FC 0–2 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite
The two sides
Al-Wasl FC carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.88 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.74 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Wasl FC rate 0.80 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.10 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC against 1.74 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Wasl FC's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.05 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Season stats
Al-Wasl FC at home · Al-Ahli Jeddah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Wasl FC 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Al-Wasl FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Wasl FC
- at Baniyas SC16 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Al-Nassr26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
- vs Al-Dhafra30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 60%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 70%
- at Al-Jazira8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- vs Al-Nassr15 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al-Fayha19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 52%
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 61%
- vs Al-Gharafa26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 73%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.