Nacional Asuncion
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta.
Before kick-off the model made it 69% Nacional Asuncion, 20% draw, 11% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 2.40, Deportivo Recoleta 0.69.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional Asuncion at 69% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. RojasG
- 23C. EspínolaD
- 22R. MelgarejoD
- 3M. CoronelD
- 29S. VargasD
- 8F. JaraM
- 15Á. Cardozo LucenaM
- 33O. GaonaM
- 13L. MezaM
- 10J. ColmánM
- 9H. BenítezF
- 20Rodolfo ArguelloD
- 11Matías Facundo Almeida MartínezF
- 7I. BailoneF
- 5G. BenítezD
- 39D. CaballeroF
- 36F. PelozoF
- 32F. PumpidoM
- 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
- 17J. SantacruzM
- 13O. ToledoG
- 2F. A. Echeguren ZarzaD
- 5N. MarottaD
- 32L. MonzónD
- 18P. RiosD
- 36B. FerreiraM
- 7R. DomínguezM
- 38J. FrancoM
- 17W. BáezM
- 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoF
- 33A. GonzálezF
- 8F. GaleanoM
- 21C. GarayM
- 1A. MarsegnoG
- 15B. MedinaD
- 23J. NúñezD
- 9R. OrtizF
- 11K. ParzajukF
- 4M. PereiraD
- 31M. ShuppM
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
- D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Luqueno20 September 2026
- L1-3Sportivo Trinidense12 September 2026
What these results say
- Nacional Asuncion went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Nacional Asuncion scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Recoleta did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 26 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 12 October 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 April 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo RecoletaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 26 February 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 November 2025Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez55
- I. Valdez50
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.40 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.69 for Deportivo Recoleta; the game produced 1 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Leandro Meza 56' (Nacional Asuncion).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.69 for Deportivo Recoleta. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.08 for Deportivo Recoleta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.