Valladolid
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Valladolid 1–0 Albacete
The model makes it 37% Valladolid, 31% draw, 32% Albacete — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.22, Albacete 1.05.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Valladolid are 17th on 8 points from 7 games; Albacete are bottom on 1 point from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cordoba.
- Albacete have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Girona.
- Last 6 meetings: Albacete 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Valladolid 0–1 Albacete.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Valladolid vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valladolid at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Albacete
Valladolid
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
- W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cadiz30 August 2026
Albacete
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Castellón6 September 2026
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Albacete
- 24 January 2026Valladolid 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 21 September 2025Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 February 2024Valladolid 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 1 September 2023Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 May 2018Valladolid 3–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 9 December 2017Albacete 2–1 ValladolidSegunda División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.42 for Albacete. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Valladolid and 1.05 for Albacete. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valladolid rate 0.56 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Albacete rate 0.60 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valladolid the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.05 for Albacete. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.42 for Albacete.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valladolid at home · Albacete away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Valladolid 7, Albacete 7.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Valladolid have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Valladolid
- vs Eldense18 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Granada CF25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Leganes1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- at Sporting Gijon8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
Albacete
- at Sporting Gijon17 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Eldense25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Sabadell1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- at Leganes8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.