Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Beşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Beşiktaş, 30% draw, 24% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. NubelG
- 62M. MurilloD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopcuD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 6S. OzcanM
- 18V. CernyM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 10O. KokcuM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 22T. BulutD
- 58Y. OzcanD
- 35T. DjaloD
- 50U. AkdagD
- 4W. NdidiM
- 8K. Kayra YilmazM
- 17E. PokuF
- 90S. KilicsoyF
- 1E. TaskiranG
- 53O. OvacikliD
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 22M. YumluD
- 18N. MujakicD
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 20M. CardosoM
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 42E. OwusuM
- 65M. RodriguezM
- 10E. TozluF
- 31M. OrbanicG
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KirtayD
- 23C. BayrakD
- 8S. AkgunM
- 77L. AgyekumM
- 99M. FettahogluF
- 19I. DiabateF
- 90N. AkhundzadeF
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK
Beşiktaş
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Kauno Žalgiris27 August 2026
- L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris20 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
- L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Erzurumspor FK failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Erzurumspor FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK
- 11 April 2021Erzurumspor FK 2–4 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 20 December 2020Beşiktaş 4–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 22 January 2020Beşiktaş 2–3 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 15 January 2020Erzurumspor FK 3–2 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
- 25 January 2019Beşiktaş 1–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
Erzurumspor FK
GoalsAssists
- E. Tozlu31
- Miguel Cardoso30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beşiktaş beat Erzurumspor FK 3–0. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Topcu 21' for Beşiktaş, L. Trossard 27' for Beşiktaş, Y. Kirtay (own goal) 81' for Beşiktaş. On expected goals it finished 2.27–0.41.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.