11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result

Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Beşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Beşiktaş, 30% draw, 24% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Beşiktaş at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

O. Kokcu
15'
⚽E. Topcuassist: O. Kokcu
21'
K. Ouattara
26'
⚽L. Trossardassist: Oh Hyeon-Gyu
27'
•L. Trossard
51'
57'
🔁M. Cardosoout: I. Diabate
S. Ozcan
66'
67'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: M. Fettahoglu
67'
🔁N. Mujakicout: Y. Kirtay
🔁O. Kokcuout: K. Kayra Yilmaz
70'
🔁S. Ozcanout: W. Ndidi
71'
🔁V. Cernyout: I. Fakili
71'
73'
🔁O. Ovacikliout: F. Ebosele
73'
🔁E. Tozluout: G. Kerk
⚽Y. Kirtay (OG)
81'
🔁M. Murilloout: T. Bulut
83'
🔁L. Trossardout: E. Poku
83'

Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK

74%Possession26%
21Shots8
6On target1
10Corners1
2.27xG0.41

Goals against chances

Beşiktaş3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth
Erzurumspor FK0 from 0.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NubelG
  • 62M. MurilloD
  • 12E. AgbadouD
  • 53E. TopcuD
  • 11K. OuattaraD
  • 6S. OzcanM
  • 18V. CernyM
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 10O. KokcuM
  • 19L. TrossardM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 22T. BulutD
  • 58Y. OzcanD
  • 35T. DjaloD
  • 50U. AkdagD
  • 4W. NdidiM
  • 8K. Kayra YilmazM
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 90S. KilicsoyF
Coach: Vincenzo Italiano
Erzurumspor FK 5-4-1
  • 1E. TaskiranG
  • 53O. OvacikliD
  • 4A. GerxhaliuD
  • 22M. YumluD
  • 18N. MujakicD
  • 15G. GiorbelidzeD
  • 20M. CardosoM
  • 6B. BaiyeM
  • 42E. OwusuM
  • 65M. RodriguezM
  • 10E. TozluF
Substitutes
  • 31M. OrbanicG
  • 2F. EboseleD
  • 3Y. KirtayD
  • 23C. BayrakD
  • 8S. AkgunM
  • 77L. AgyekumM
  • 99M. FettahogluF
  • 19I. DiabateF
  • 90N. AkhundzadeF
Coach: Serkan Ozbalta

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK

Beşiktaş

  • W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
  • W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
  • W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026

Erzurumspor FK

  • W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
  • L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Beşiktaş5401124+812
15Erzurumspor FK5113211-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK

  • 11 September 2026Beşiktaş 3–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • 11 April 2021Erzurumspor FK 2–4 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 20 December 2020Beşiktaş 4–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • 22 January 2020Beşiktaş 2–3 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
  • 15 January 2020Erzurumspor FK 3–2 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
  • 25 January 2019Beşiktaş 1–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK

Beşiktaş

  • D. Vlahović4 goals
  • V. Černý2 goals

Erzurumspor FK

  • E. Tozlu2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.