Akhmat
vs
FC Rostov
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 48% Akhmat, 25% draw, 27% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Akhmat 1.72, FC Rostov 1.26.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Akhmat
- L1-2Spartak Moscow2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv26 July 2026
FC Rostov
- D0-0away to CSKA Moscow8 August 2026
- W4-2away to Rodina Moskva31 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC Orenburg26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Akhmat
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Rostov
- A. Langovich1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Akhmat carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.3 for FC Rostov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Akhmat D-L; FC Rostov L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Akhmat and 1.26 for FC Rostov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Akhmat rate 0.52 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Rostov rate 0.58 and 1.75.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Rostov, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akhmat the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Akhmat against 1.26 for FC Rostov. Akhmat's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.75 for FC Rostov.