Vasas
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
The model makes it 84% Vasas, 11% draw, 5% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 1.19, 9.09 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Vasas 2.99, Puskas Academy 0.65.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasas
- W5-0Zalaegerszegi TE8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Ferencvarosi TC2 August 2026
- D2-2Gyori ETO FC26 July 2026
Puskas Academy
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
- L0-2Kisvarda FC31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Debreceni VSC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vasas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 5 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Vasas
No league goals recorded yet.
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Vasas carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.39 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasas D-D-W; Puskas Academy W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.99 goals for Vasas and 0.65 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasas rate 1.13 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.55 and 1.40.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Puskas Academy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Vasas against 0.65 for Puskas Academy. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.4 for Puskas Academy.