MTK Budapest
vs
Nyiregyhaza
NB I prediction
The model makes it 57% MTK Budapest, 27% draw, 16% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.53, Nyiregyhaza 0.70.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
MTK Budapest
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
- D3-3away to Budapest Honved1 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Nyiregyhaza
- L0-1away to Debreceni VSC9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Gyori ETO FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Ujpest24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Nyiregyhaza | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek2 goals1 assists
Nyiregyhaza
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
MTK Budapest carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.17 for Nyiregyhaza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): MTK Budapest W-D-L; Nyiregyhaza W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for MTK Budapest and 0.70 for Nyiregyhaza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MTK Budapest rate 0.53 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nyiregyhaza rate 0.36 and 1.53.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 0.7 for Nyiregyhaza. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/1.53 for Nyiregyhaza.