Kayserispor
vs
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Kayserispor 1–0 Manisa F.K.
The model makes it 47% Kayserispor, 28% draw, 25% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kayserispor 1.82, Manisa F.K. 1.02.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kayserispor are top on 19 points from 8 games; Manisa F.K. are 13th on 9 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Kayserispor are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win away to Mardin 1969.
- Manisa F.K. have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to İstanbulspor.
- Last 2 meetings: Kayserispor 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 December 2019, ended Manisa F.K. 3–3 Kayserispor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kayserispor at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
Kayserispor
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Esenler Erokspor7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük2 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor29 August 2026
Manisa F.K.
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor7 September 2026
- L2-4away to Iğdır FK3 September 2026
- D0-0Bodrum FK30 August 2026
What these results say
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 19 |
| 13 | Manisa F.K. | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
- 19 December 2019Manisa F.K. 3–3 KayserisporTürkiye Kupası
- 5 December 2019Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K.Türkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Manisa F.K.
Kayserispor
- T. Seferi7 goals
- D. Moreno5 goals
Manisa F.K.
- J. Anziani5 goals1 assist
- C. Sylla4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kayserispor carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.31 for Manisa F.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Kayserispor and 1.02 for Manisa F.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kayserispor rate 0.64 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manisa F.K. rate 0.59 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kayserispor a 14% chance of the title and Manisa F.K. 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kayserispor against 1.02 for Manisa F.K.. Kayserispor's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.75 for Manisa F.K..
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kayserispor at home · Manisa F.K. away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Kayserispor 8, Manisa F.K. 8.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Manisa F.K. have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kayserispor
- at Antalyaspor14 Oct · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Batman Petrolspor18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Pendikspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Muğlaspor2 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Ümraniyespor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Manisa F.K.
- vs Esenler Erokspor15 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- vs Muğlaspor19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Mardin 196926 Oct · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Batman Petrolspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Keçiörengücü7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.