Burgos vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 1-0 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Burgos, 30% draw, 23% Eldense — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Eldense
Line-ups
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 20José GrageraM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 9Álex ForésF
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 39David Hernáiz GarcíaD
- 24S. LencinasM
- 2ÁlexD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
- 30M. MonederoG
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 3Juan LariosD
- 14J. SmithM
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 10FidelM
- 12Roberto LópezM
- 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 6Borja CalvoM
- 19A. IbarrondoF
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 13JuanpaG
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
- 2Iker RecioD
Form going into Burgos vs Eldense
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
What these results say
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Eldense
- 29 March 2025Eldense 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 8 December 2024Burgos 1–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 10 May 2024Burgos 1–2 EldenseSegunda División
- 5 November 2023Eldense 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 December 2022Eldense 1–0 BurgosCopa del Rey
The result against the call
Burgos beat Eldense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Burgos at 47%. The goal: David Gonzalez 45' for Burgos.
How the call on Burgos v Eldense has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Burgos win47%▲ +4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Eldense win23%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.