Mariehamn vs Turku PS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mariehamn, 30% draw, 32% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mariehamn at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Line-ups
- 1K. LundG
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 27L. RichtnerD
- 31S. NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundD
- 8J. HeydenM
- 20E. PatutM
- 14A. BergvikM
- 7A. LarssonF
- 11J. SvedbergM
- 12O. HeinoG
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 64M. HyvonenM
- 18A. StroudM
- 43L. AnderssonF
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 19T. JakobsenM
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 20M. KauppilaD
- 15C. AzongnitodeD
- 14M. HradeckyD
- 25A. TambaD
- 6P. JuvantenyM
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KonkkolaM
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 41S. AniniF
- 99K. VisserF
- 35D. LauriG
- 2O. HaggstromD
- 3E. TurkkiD
- 24N. TaloD
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 26L. IkonenM
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 44N. VeinbergsF
Form going into Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Mariehamn
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026
Turku PS
All competitions we cover
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026
What these results say
- Mariehamn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Turku PS went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Turku PS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Turku PS
- 1 August 2026Turku PS 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 4 April 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
- 11 February 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
- 28 May 2025Mariehamn 2–2 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 22 March 2024Mariehamn 1–3 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Turku PS
Mariehamn
No leading scorers listed yet.
Turku PS
GoalsAssists
- A. Muzaci30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mariehamn beat Turku PS 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mariehamn at 38%. The goal: A. Bergvik 7' for Mariehamn.
How the call on Mariehamn v Turku PS has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Mariehamn's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Mariehamn win38%▲ +2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Turku PS win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.