Mariehamn
vs
Turku PS
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Mariehamn, 31% draw, 26% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Mariehamn 1.41, Turku PS 0.84.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mariehamn at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Mariehamn
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
Turku PS
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Turku PS
- 1 August 2026Turku PS 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 4 April 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 11 February 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
- 28 May 2025Mariehamn 2–2 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 22 March 2024Mariehamn 1–3 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2020Turku PS 1–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Turku PS
Mariehamn
No player in Veikkausliiga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mariehamn carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.18 for Turku PS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Mariehamn and 0.84 for Turku PS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mariehamn rate 0.55 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turku PS rate 0.39 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Turku PS, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mariehamn the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mariehamn against 0.84 for Turku PS. Mariehamn's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.58 for Turku PS.