Apollon Limassol
vs
Pafos
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Apollon Limassol 1–0 Pafos
The model makes it 42% Apollon Limassol, 28% draw, 30% Pafos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Apollon Limassol 1.51, Pafos 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Apollon Limassol are 5th on 9 points from 5 games; Pafos are 4th on 10 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Apollon Limassol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Nea Salamis.
- Pafos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Anorthosis.
- Last 6 meetings: Apollon Limassol 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Apollon Limassol 0–2 Pafos.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apollon Limassol at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
Apollon Limassol
- W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026
- D2-2Apoel Nicosia19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia12 September 2026
- W3-1Anorthosis5 September 2026
Pafos
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Apollon Limassol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
- 29 May 2026Apollon Limassol 0–2 PafosCup
- 3 May 2026Apollon Limassol 2–1 Pafos1. Division
- 22 March 2026Pafos 1–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 4 January 2026Apollon Limassol 2–1 Pafos1. Division
- 13 September 2025Pafos 0–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 7 May 2025Apollon Limassol 0–2 PafosCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Apollon Limassol carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.75 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Apollon Limassol and 1.21 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apollon Limassol rate 0.91 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.83 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pafos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apollon Limassol the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Apollon Limassol against 1.21 for Pafos. Apollon Limassol's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.02 for Pafos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Apollon Limassol at home · Pafos away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Apollon Limassol 5, Pafos 5.
Apollon Limassol score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Pafos have let in 1 there.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Apollon Limassol have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Apollon Limassol
- at Olympiakos7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
- at AEK Larnaca27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- vs Omonia Aradippou2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 54%
Pafos
- at Twente5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.