4 September 2026, 19:45 UTC

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Cordoba
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0-2 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 30% draw, 33% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽G. Maffini (OG)
Gonzalo Maffini
14'
42'
🔁U. Gimenezout: G. Gonzalez
🔁G. Gonzalezout: R. Lozano
46'
49'
🔁L. Suarezout: G. Diaz
Fernando Rodríguez
62'
🔁S. Rosaneout: T. Gonzalez
62'
🔁M. Valienteout: M. Bajamich
67'
71'
⚽J. Marabel (pen)
81'
🔁J. Mavillaout: T. Santamaria
🔁G. Alanisout: F. Lo Celso
82'
🔁F. Rodriguezout: M. Garnerone
82'
82'
🔁S. Salleout: G. Arturia
82'
🔁J. Herreraout: E. Gimenez

Match stats — Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin

65%Possession35%
18Shots12
4On target4
14Corners1
0.89xG1.36

Goals against chances

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Sarmiento Junin2 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. BrueraG
  • 6J. AntoniniD
  • 2G. MaffiniD
  • 31M. ValentiD
  • 5A. CabreraM
  • 14G. GonzalezM
  • 8S. RosaneM
  • 17G. AlanisM
  • 23F. RodriguezM
  • 22M. ValienteF
  • 77I. HesarF
Substitutes
  • 43A. LastraG
  • 45R. LozanoD
  • 3L. BanosD
  • 28F. CobosD
  • 29A. QuirogaD
  • 13F. RomeroM
  • 40F. Lo CelsoM
  • 10T. GonzalezM
  • 11M. GarneroneF
Coach: Ruben Forestello
Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuarezD
  • 8S. SalleM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 24J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 33G. DiazD
  • 29T. SantamariaD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 10J. RenteriaM
  • 17A. NadruzM
  • 5M. GarciaM
Coach: Facundo Sava

Form going into Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Huracan29 August 2026
  • D0-0San Lorenzo21 August 2026
  • L0-1Atletico Tucuman17 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente Rivadavia8 August 2026
  • D0-0Banfield1 August 2026

Sarmiento Junin

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026

What these results say

  • Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto had two goals or fewer.
  • Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto14239919-109
7Sarmiento Junin146352221+121

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and Sarmiento Junin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarmiento Junin won 2–0 at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The model had leaned towards a win for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 37% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Maffini (own goal) 6' for Sarmiento Junin, J. Marabel (penalty) 71' for Sarmiento Junin. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.36.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.