BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: BK Hacken 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% BK Hacken, 22% draw, 18% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
BK Hacken at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99E. BerishaG
- 5B. WembangomoD
- 13H. HilveniusD
- 22F. HelanderD
- 21A. LundkvistD
- 6A. DoumbiaM
- 19D. SegerM
- 20A. SvanbäckM
- 10M. RygaardM
- 11Julius LindbergM
- 9G. LindgrenF
- 7M. AggerF
- 14M. HaalandM
- 8S. HestnesM
- 32H. IbrahimM
- 18W. UhrströmM
- 1A. LindeG
- 23O. SamuelssonD
- 15L. VäisänenD
- 27C. WawaF
- 44H. GustafssonG
- 33S. LagerlundD
- 25J. HammarD
- 6M. DyrestamD
- 18A. AnderssonM
- 23O. Parker-PriceM
- 8B. LaturnusM
- 19A. AndreassonM
- 14D. PaulsonF
- 17W. HofvanderF
- 22T. SanaF
- 7C. VindehallM
- 5C. StyffeD
- 34A. RahmG
- 2M. ParkerD
- 11D. ObouF
- 21W. KenndalM
- 29Marlon EbietomereD
- 3J. AzulayD
- 9L. AnderssonF
Form going into BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
BK Hacken
All competitions we cover
- W5-0away to Kalmar FF20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gais5 September 2026
- L1-3Vasteras SK FK29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sirius21 August 2026
Orgryte IS
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
What these results say
- BK Hacken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BK Hacken | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 49 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
- 11 July 2026Orgryte IS 4–3 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 14 February 2026BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte ISFriendlies Clubs
- 20 June 2022Orgryte IS 2–2 BK HackenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: BK Hacken and Orgryte IS
BK Hacken
GoalsAssists
- G. Lindgren132
- Julius Lindberg98
- A. Svanbäck88
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BK Hacken beat Orgryte IS 3–0. The model had made a win for BK Hacken its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Julius Lindberg 7' for BK Hacken, Julius Lindberg 45+1' for BK Hacken, adrian svanback 57' for BK Hacken. On expected goals it finished 2.58–0.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave BK Hacken a 40.0% chance to finish in the top four: 46.4% after a win, 30.6% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.4%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.
For Orgryte IS the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 89.2% going in: 78.5% after a win, 87.9% after a draw, 92.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.7%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on BK Hacken v Orgryte IS has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 60% / 22% / 18%: the biggest move is BK Hacken's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- BK Hacken win60%▲ +6
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Orgryte IS win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.