BK Hacken
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: BK Hacken 2–1 Orgryte IS
The model makes it 54% BK Hacken, 24% draw, 22% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: BK Hacken 2.45, Orgryte IS 1.12.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BK Hacken at 54% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
BK Hacken
- W5-0away to Kalmar FF20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gais5 September 2026
- L1-3Vasteras SK FK29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sirius21 August 2026
Orgryte IS
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
What these results say
- BK Hacken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BK Hacken | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 36 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
- 11 July 2026Orgryte IS 4–3 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 14 February 2026BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte ISFriendlies Clubs
- 20 June 2022Orgryte IS 2–2 BK HackenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: BK Hacken and Orgryte IS
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren12 goals
- Julius Lindberg7 goals6 assists
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
BK Hacken carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.18 for Orgryte IS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.45 goals for BK Hacken and 1.12 for Orgryte IS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BK Hacken rate 0.72 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orgryte IS rate 0.54 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BK Hacken a 0.1% chance of the title and Orgryte IS 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BK Hacken the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.45 expected goals for BK Hacken against 1.12 for Orgryte IS. BK Hacken's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.09 for Orgryte IS.