VfL Bochum
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Bochum 2–1 Karlsruher SC
The model makes it 47% VfL Bochum, 26% draw, 27% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 1.76, Karlsruher SC 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. VfL Bochum's rating is built from 43 2. Bundesliga matches and Karlsruher SC's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 694 matches.
Key facts
- VfL Bochum are 13th on 8 points from 9 games; Karlsruher SC are 15th on 8 points from 9 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- VfL Bochum have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to VfL Wolfsburg.
- Karlsruher SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to 1. FC Magdeburg.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Karlsruher SC 1–2 VfL Bochum.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Bochum at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1VfL Wolfsburg23 October 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
- L1-6away to 1. FC Magdeburg24 October 2026
- W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum did not win any of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Bochum had two goals or fewer.
- Karlsruher SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
- 17 May 2026Karlsruher SC 1–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 20 December 2025VfL Bochum 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 10 December 2022VfL Bochum 1–2 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2021VfL Bochum 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 27 September 2020Karlsruher SC 0–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 24 May 2020Karlsruher SC 0–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Karlsruher SC
VfL Bochum
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Karlsruher SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Fukuda32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.35 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.20 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.54 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 0.68 and 1.88.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Bochum the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.20 for Karlsruher SC. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.88 for Karlsruher SC.
How the model reaches 47% for VfL Bochum to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for VfL Bochum to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, VfL Bochum's ratings take away 21 points and Karlsruher SC's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- VfL Bochum's ratings22%−21
- Karlsruher SC's ratings47%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfL Bochum at home · Karlsruher SC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Bochum 9, Karlsruher SC 9.
VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Karlsruher SC have let in 3 there.
Karlsruher SC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
VfL Bochum
- at FC St. Pauli21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 24%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 22%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
Karlsruher SC
- vs VfL Osnabrück22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- at Hertha BSC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 17%
- vs Holstein Kiel6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.