1. FC Köln
vs
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Köln 0–1 FC Schalke 04
The model makes it 35% 1. FC Köln, 29% draw, 36% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.28, FC Schalke 04 1.29.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: 1. FC Köln and FC Schalke 04 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- 1. FC Köln are 10th on 7 points from 5 games; FC Schalke 04 are 13th on 5 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Köln have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to SC Freiburg.
- Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Köln 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2025, ended 1. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Schalke 04 at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04
1. FC Köln
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
- W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026
FC Schalke 04
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Köln scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for 1. FC Köln.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04
- 9 February 20251. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
- 1 September 2024FC Schalke 04 1–3 1. FC Köln2. Bundesliga
- 29 January 2023FC Schalke 04 0–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 7 August 20221. FC Köln 3–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 27 January 20221. FC Köln 2–2 FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs
- 22 May 20211. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Köln carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.81 for FC Schalke 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.29 for FC Schalke 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Köln rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Schalke 04 rate 0.71 and 0.82.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Köln, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Schalke 04 the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.29 for FC Schalke 04. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.82 for FC Schalke 04.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Köln at home · FC Schalke 04 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC KölnFC Schalke 04
1. FC Köln are 10th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); FC Schalke 04 are 13th after 5 (between 7th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Köln 5, FC Schalke 04 5.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Köln
- vs Union Berlin27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 47%
- at Union Berlin1 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen8 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Bayern München20 Nov · Bundesligawin 7%
- vs SV Elversberg28 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
FC Schalke 04
- at Dynamo Dresden27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 43%
- vs RB Leipzig31 Oct · Bundesligawin 24%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim8 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs VfB Stuttgart21 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
- at SC Paderborn 0728 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.