NEC Nijmegen
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 1–2 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 22% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 57% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 4.55, 4.76 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.34, PSV Eindhoven 2.45.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: PSV Eindhoven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. NEC Nijmegen's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and PSV Eindhoven's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 14 points from 12 games; PSV Eindhoven are top on 26 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- NEC Nijmegen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Utrecht.
- PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Cambuur.
- Last 6 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended PSV Eindhoven 2–3 NEC Nijmegen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie
- W3-2away to Utrecht8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen31 October 2026
- D2-2Groningen25 October 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- W5-2away to Cambuur8 November 2026
- W7-0Willem II31 October 2026
- D1-1Feyenoord25 October 2026
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PSV Eindhoven
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 53% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven have met 6 times in the records we hold, NEC Nijmegen has won 3 of them to PSV Eindhoven's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
NEC Nijmegen won the last one 3–2 on 14 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 5.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Mar 2026
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 2–3 NEC Nijmegen - 3 Mar 2026
KNVB BekerNEC Nijmegen 3–2 PSV Eindhoven - 13 Sep 2025
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 3–5 PSV Eindhoven - 1 Feb 2025
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 3–3 PSV Eindhoven - 14 Sep 2024
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 2–0 NEC Nijmegen - 30 Mar 2024
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 3–1 PSV Eindhoven
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, PSV Eindhoven's attack rates 76% above NEC Nijmegen's, and PSV Eindhoven concede 22% fewer than NEC Nijmegen. That gives PSV Eindhoven the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.48 | 0.86 |
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEC Nijmegen a 0% chance of the title and PSV Eindhoven 52.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 2.45 for PSV Eindhoven. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.86 for PSV Eindhoven.
How the model reaches 57% for PSV Eindhoven to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for PSV Eindhoven to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, NEC Nijmegen's ratings add 11 points and PSV Eindhoven's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- NEC Nijmegen's ratings43%+11
- PSV Eindhoven's ratings57%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NEC NijmegenPSV Eindhoven
NEC Nijmegen are 11th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); PSV Eindhoven are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 12, PSV Eindhoven 12.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- vs Rennes26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 39%
- vs Twente29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- at Sparta Rotterdam5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at AZ Alkmaar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 24%
- vs ADO Den Haag20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 50%
PSV Eindhoven
- at Real Madrid24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 13%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 77%
- at AZ Alkmaar5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Atletico Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Telstar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.