Lorient
vs
Rennes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lorient 2–1 Rennes
The model makes it 41% Lorient, 26% draw, 33% Rennes — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.68, Rennes 1.45.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lorient's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Rennes's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Lorient are 10th on 15 points from 10 games; Rennes are 8th on 16 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Lorient have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Le Havre.
- Rennes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lille.
- Last 6 meetings: Lorient 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Rennes 0–2 Lorient.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lorient vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
Lorient at 41%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lorient vs Rennes
Lorient
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to Le Havre8 November 2026
- L0-2Stade Brestois 292 November 2026
- D0-0away to Angers25 October 2026
- W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
Rennes
Ligue 1
- L1-2Lille8 November 2026
- L2-5away to Nice30 October 2026
- W3-0Strasbourg25 October 2026
- L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lorient had two goals or fewer.
- Lorient kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rennes had three goals or more.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rennes
Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Rennes
Lorient and Rennes have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lorient has won 6 of them to Rennes's 0.
The record
Lorient won the last one 2–0 on 24 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 |
| Rennes | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Jan 2026
Ligue 1Rennes 0–2 Lorient - 24 Aug 2025
Ligue 1Lorient 4–0 Rennes - 3 Mar 2024
Ligue 1Rennes 1–2 Lorient - 22 Oct 2023
Ligue 1Lorient 2–1 Rennes - 27 Jan 2023
Ligue 1Lorient 2–1 Rennes - 7 Aug 2022
Ligue 1Rennes 0–1 Lorient
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Rennes' attack rates 60% above Lorient's, and Lorient concede 33% fewer than Rennes. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lorient and Rennes
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rennes (eighth, with Lorient tenth), while our numbers lean to Lorient. Lorient rate 0.77 in attack and 0.86 in defence, Rennes 1.23 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence), so Lorient have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lorient a 0% chance of the title and Rennes 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Lorient v Rennes has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Lorient's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Lorient win41%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Rennes win33%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lorient against 1.45 for Rennes. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.29 for Rennes.
How the model reaches 41% for Lorient to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lorient to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Lorient's ratings take away 3 points and Rennes's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Lorient's ratings40%−3
- Rennes's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lorient at home · Rennes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LorientRennes
Lorient are 10th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Rennes are 8th after 10 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lorient 10, Rennes 10.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Lorient have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lorient
- at Paris Saint Germain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 13%
- at Strasbourg5 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs Lille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs Auxerre2 Jan · Ligue 1win 50%
- at Lyon17 Jan · Ligue 1win 25%
Rennes
- at NEC Nijmegen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Toulouse29 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Stade Brestois 296 Dec · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
- vs Monaco13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.