Santos Laguna
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Santos Laguna 2–1 Leon
The model makes it 46% Santos Laguna, 27% draw, 27% Leon — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.70, Leon 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Santos Laguna's rating is built from 50 Liga MX matches and Leon's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- Santos Laguna are 6th on 25 points from 16 games; Leon are 7th on 23 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Atlante FC.
- Leon are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Guadalajara Chivas.
- Last 6 meetings: Leon 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Leon 2–1 Santos Laguna.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santos Laguna vs Leon
Has the model earned this number?
Santos Laguna at 46%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Leon
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- W2-0away to Atlante FC7 November 2026
- W1-0Necaxa1 November 2026
- L1-4away to Club Tijuana26 October 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM22 October 2026
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
Leon
Liga MX
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas9 November 2026
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul2 November 2026
- D1-1Toluca24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Tigres UANL21 October 2026
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Santos Laguna
Chance to finish in the top eight · 86% today
Leon
Chance to finish in the top eight · 38% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leon vs Santos Laguna
Leon and Santos Laguna have met 6 times in the records we hold, Leon has won 3 of them to Santos Laguna's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Leon won the last one 2–1 on 22 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| Santos Laguna | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Feb 2026
Liga MXLeon 2–1 Santos Laguna - 18 Oct 2025
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–0 Leon - 9 Mar 2025
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–1 Leon - 25 Aug 2024
Liga MXLeon 1–1 Santos Laguna - 27 Jan 2024
Liga MXLeon 3–2 Santos Laguna - 27 Nov 2023
Liga MXLeon 3–2 Santos Laguna
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Santos Laguna's attack rates 3% above Leon's, and Santos Laguna concede 5% fewer than Leon. That gives Santos Laguna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Leon | 0.72 | 1.33 |
| Santos Laguna | 0.74 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Leon
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 1.19 for Leon. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.33 for Leon.
How the model reaches 46% for Santos Laguna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santos Laguna to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Santos Laguna's ratings add 1 point and Leon's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Santos Laguna's ratings45%+1
- Leon's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Santos Laguna at home · Leon away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Santos LagunaLeon
Santos Laguna are 6th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 5th and 17th so far); Leon are 7th after 16 (between 4th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Santos Laguna 16, Leon 16.
Santos Laguna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Leon have let in 7 there.
Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Santos Laguna have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.