Samsunspor
vs
Konyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Samsunspor 1–0 Konyaspor
The model makes it 37% Samsunspor, 29% draw, 34% Konyaspor — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.31, Konyaspor 1.22.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 956 settled matches.
A tight game: Samsunspor and Konyaspor are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Samsunspor's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Konyaspor's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 721 matches.
Key facts
- Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 8 games; Konyaspor are 16th on 5 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Samsunspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Kasımpaşa.
- Konyaspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Amed.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Samsunspor 2–2 Konyaspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Samsunspor at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Samsunspor vs Konyaspor
Samsunspor
Süper Lig
- L1-4away to Kasımpaşa18 October 2026
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
Konyaspor
Süper Lig
- L0-1away to Amed17 October 2026
- D0-0Başakşehir11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Kasımpaşa18 September 2026
- W1-0Trabzonspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK5 September 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Konyaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Konyaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Konyaspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor
Konyaspor and Samsunspor have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Samsunspor on 5 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Samsunspor | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 5 Apr 2026
Süper LigSamsunspor 2–2 Konyaspor - 2 Nov 2025
Süper LigKonyaspor 1–3 Samsunspor - 16 Feb 2025
Süper LigKonyaspor 0–1 Samsunspor - 14 Sep 2024
Süper LigSamsunspor 0–1 Konyaspor - 12 May 2024
Süper LigKonyaspor 3–0 Samsunspor - 21 Dec 2023
Süper LigSamsunspor 1–1 Konyaspor
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | 0.61 | 1.08 |
| Samsunspor | 0.73 | 1.53 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Samsunspor carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.59 for Konyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Samsunspor and 1.22 for Konyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Samsunspor rate 0.73 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Konyaspor rate 0.61 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Konyaspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Samsunspor the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Samsunspor against 1.22 for Konyaspor. Samsunspor's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.08 for Konyaspor.
How the model reaches 37% for Samsunspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Samsunspor to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Samsunspor's ratings take away 19 points and Konyaspor's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Samsunspor's ratings24%−19
- Konyaspor's ratings37%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Samsunspor at home · Konyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SamsunsporKonyaspor
Samsunspor are 17th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Konyaspor are 16th after 8 (between 13th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Samsunspor 8, Konyaspor 8.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Konyaspor have let in 2 there.
Konyaspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Samsunspor have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Samsunspor
- at Galatasaray21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 10%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 42%
- at Beşiktaş6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 13%
Konyaspor
- vs Beşiktaş22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
- at Alanyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
- vs Gaziantep FK5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.